We are University Students in Hyderabad and Mumbai. This article documents how we used TC19LMG Localisation models and publicly available data to discover in November 2020 the conditions for a significant risk of a surge in infections in Mumbai and Delhi existed. We could not be sure about the timing becuase that depended on future unknowable efforts to contain the spread. Our worst fear was it might happen as soon as January 2021 following the relaxation of controls for the festive season.
The analysis revealed practical actions that can still help. It is too late to stop the surge now but we hope by publishig these findings it may stimulate reforms in India and benfit others.
The Covid 19 Localisation Modelling Group : Dec 23, 2020
You may be wondering: Why is a 70% more infectious mutation of Covid 19 cause for the Government to immediately declare a Tier 4 emergency in London? 70% is not certain but if it is verified the consequences can be explosive. We believe the Government acted prudently.
The Covid 19 Localisation Modelling Group : Nov 27, 2020
Analysis of the mid size town of Swindon indicates vigilance for another 4 weeks post the current 4 week lockdown combined with vaccines could cut Covid deaths and subsequent suffering from Long Covid by more than 70%
The Covid 19 Localisation Modelling Group : Nov 9, 2020
This article shows why we are very concerned about a large scale second wave in Mumbai non-slums triggered by the Festive Season celebrations in the next few weeks. We also offer a forward view of into 2021. See our videos in Hindi and English
This article is our story of efforts to set up our Covid 19 Localisation model and how we had some initial conclusions that illustrated very well why Localising the model is critical
Kim Warren : July 9, 2020
Questions that millions of people worldwide are asking themselves everyday. And all they get from experts and Government is crude national numbers, simplistic remarks about the "R" factor, and orders about what to do that take no account at all of their situation. Things may look 'under control' nationwide while the out-break is raging like a firestorm in their city or county, or be about to do so.
Kim Warren : April 27, 2020
Everyone is talking about COVID-19's R-nought (how many people get infected by each already-infected person) like it's just a single thing. But R0 is made up of simple parts we need to understand when choosing our behaviour and assessing what we are being told - and it's very different in different places. Each element offers specific response options that can be combined in different ways for specific regions and timings.
This is the second in our series of articles on Hong Kong. Here we aim to show you how our modelling of the COVID 19 outbreak provokes critical questions and informs answers to how Hong Kong can navigate an exit from a “walled city trap”.
This article is reporting in more depth on what has happened in London through the lens of our simulation model. We are now pivoting from “understanding what has happened” to begin to try to answer: “what is next”? or more accurately: “what could be next”?
New York City appears to be on a fast track to herd immunity by the end of June. This is a surprise. Detailed case study and model link. No other case we have evaluated is tracking this way.
Modelling the impact of Lebaran migration on COVID-19 cases throughout Indonesia